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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2018-08-20T21:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2018-08-20T21:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/14113/-1
CME Note: The CME is associated with a filament eruption occurring around 2018-08-20T18:00Z at N40W05 in SDO 193.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2018-08-25T06:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 7.0
Dst min. in nT: -169
Dst min. time: 2018-08-26T07:00Z

Predicted Arrival Time: 2018-08-24T23:59Z (-24.0h, +24.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 80.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

:Issued: 2018 Aug 22 1237 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto
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# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE  from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)         #
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A faint CME front can be detected in SoHO/LASCO C2 images from around 21:12UT August 20. It is mainly directed towards the West but has an extension over the South. Although faint, it could be classified as partial halo CME. The CME seems to be related to the eruption on August 20, around 19:00UT of a filament located around the central meridian between 35 and 50 degrees. The angular extent together with the location of the associated filament eruption indicate that it is likely that the CME has an Earth-bound component. With an uncertain speed of between 300 and 500 km/s an arrival is anticipated between noon of August 24 and noon of August 25. Effects in terms of solar wind speed should be small but the magnetic field may see significant effects of the passing cloud.
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Lead Time: 65.42 hour(s)
Difference: 6.02 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2018-08-22T12:35Z

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